Poker statistics: odds, outs, EV and tracking stats

Poker statistics do not let you beat variance, but they do help you make better decisions. If you understand odds, outs, pot odds, expected value and your own session results, you stop guessing as often.

The most useful poker stats answer practical questions. How much of your bankroll should be at risk? How often will you be dealt pocket aces? How often will your draw arrive? Is a call profitable at the price you are being offered?

This guide covers the numbers to learn first. It also shows where a bankroll tracker or HUD can help you review your play after the hand is over.

Poker statistics and your bankroll

The first number to track is your bankroll. We’ve already written a full guide to bankroll management , so we’re not going to go over it again here. We will, however, recap the most important point made on that page, about how much bankroll to risk.

How bankroll stats protect you

Your bankroll is the money set aside for poker. You should not risk all of it in one game or one session. A common beginner rule is to keep any single cash-game buy-in or tournament entry to a small part of the total bankroll, then move down if the bankroll shrinks.

The exact percentage depends on format, edge and variance. Tournament players usually need more buy-ins than cash-game players because results swing harder.

Tracking bankroll statistics

Track bankroll changes over time. You want to know which formats, stakes and rooms are helping your results. Poker Stack lets you record sessions, buy-ins, cashouts, stakes, game types and notes so you can review the numbers instead of relying on memory.

Starting hand stats

Now that you’ve worked out how much to bring to the table, you need to think about starting hands, and the chances of either you or another player getting a specific one.

Your chances of getting AA

When it comes to poker statistics, a pair of aces is the strongest preflop hand. In Texas Hold'em, you will be dealt pocket aces about once every 221 hands. That means long stretches without aces are normal.

You can use the same formula for all pocket pairs. If you are wondering about the chance of receiving a specific starting hand with two different card values, it is about 82:1. That is true whether the hand is strong, like A-K, or weak, like 2-7.

Starting-hand odds help you think about what an opponent could hold, but they are only one part of the decision. Bet size, position, stack depth and player tendencies matter too.

The Chen Formula

Many players find it tough to work out how good a starting hand is. If this applies to you, the Chen Formula, developed by Bill Chen, can help. It gives your starting hand a rough score, with the best possible score being 20. Here is how to use it.

·      Assign a score to your highest card only.

-       Ace = 10

-       King = 8

-       Queen = 7

-       Jack = 6

-       10 or lower = half its value

·      If you have a pocket pair, assign a value to both cards and then add them together. The minimum value is 5, so if you get 2-2, you’d still score 5 for that hand.

·      Add 2 points to your total if your cards are suited.

·      Subtract points for gaps in the cards, with Aces always being counted as a high card.

-       No gap = -0 points

-       One card gap = -1 point

-       Two card gap = -2 points

-       Three card gap = -4 points

-       Four or more card gap = -5 points

·      Add a point if both cards are lower than a queen and have a gap of 0 or 1 cards.

·      Round your score up and you’ll be left with your final score.

Here’s an example. You are dealt suited A-J. So, we start with 10 and then add 2 as they’re suited, taking us to 12. We then deduct 2 points, as there’s a two-card gap, bringing us back down to 10, which is where the score stays, as one card is higher than a queen.

This formula is useful for newer players who want a quick way to judge whether a hand is worth playing. The higher the score, the better the starting hand is. As a rough guide, a score of 10 or higher can be playable in the right spot. Premium hands usually score 14 or more.

Remember that the formula does not know your exact situation. You still need to consider the pot size, position, stack depth and how your opponent plays before deciding whether to enter the hand.

As a simple starting point, many tight-aggressive players voluntarily play around 20% of hands in full-ring games. Your own number should change by format, position and table conditions, which is why tracking your sessions matters.

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Preflop raising stats

A preflop raise is a raise made before the flop has been seen. Therefore, it’s made without having too much of an idea about the cards other players are holding. It is generally seen as a strong play, mainly used by those with strong starting hands.

If you are going to raise pre-flop, it is important to understand how much to bet. In general, it is advisable to raise three to five times the size of the big blind. So, if the big blind is $5, you should raise $15 to $25. Adjust this upwards if you know there’s a particularly loose player who could call with anything, as it’s important to price them out of the hand when they’re holding a weak pair of cards.

Pot odds and expected value

Now we come to two of the most important poker stats: pot odds and expected value. They help you decide whether a call is worth the price.

Pot odds

Pot odds tell you the ratio between the overall pot and the bet you need to make. So, if you’re facing a bet of $2 and the pot is worth $6, you’re paying one-third of the pot size. This can be expressed as pot odds of 3:1.

Odds of hitting your draw

Once you’ve worked out your pot odds, you need to work out your odds of hitting the card(s) you need to improve your hand. You can do this by using the Rule of Two and Four.

To find out your chances of hitting your draw, work out how many outs you have (the total number of cards that can complete your hand). So, for example, if you had an open-ended straight draw after the flop, you’d usually have eight potential outs. You should then multiply this number by two, to work out the percentage chance you have of hitting the card you need on the turn.

You can multiply the number by four if you want to see your chances of hitting on either the turn or the river. This only works in an all-in situation though, as there will not be any more betting after the current round.

So, for example, if you have an open-ended straight draw, meaning eight outs, and there’s one card left to come, you would have a 16% chance of hitting a card you need when the next card is dealt, as 8 x 2 = 16.

Expected value

Now you know your pot odds and your chance of hitting your draw, you need to compare the price of the call with the chance of winning.

If your pot odds are higher than your odds of winning, you should choose to call or raise. If they’re lower, the optimal play is to fold.

An example explains this best:

·      You have an open-ended straight draw and you’ve seen the flop. Your opponent has made a $5 bet into a $15 pot, making the total pot $20. You need to call $5, therefore your pot odds are 20:5, which is simplified to 4:1, or 20%.

·      Because you have an open-ended straight draw, you have eight outs. You have two more cards to come and there will be no more bets, as the other player is all in, so you should multiply this by four, giving you 32%, or approximately 2:1.

·      Because the pot odds are higher than your chance of winning, you should call. You’ll win once every three hands, on average, and the return from this one win is more than you’d spend on the two hands that didn’t win. Your total expenditure over the three hands would be $15, and the amount you would win from your one winning hand would by $25.

Expected value is the most important part of Texas hold’em poker odds to understand, regardless of whether you’re playing in the World Series of Poker or at your local casino . So, spend some time and really get to know how it works, as it will lead to you making more money in the long term.

Using a poker HUD

In the world of poker, information really is power, and knowing the various stats associated with your opponents can be invaluable. This is why many people choose to use a poker HUD, such as PokerTracker , Holdem Manager and Poker Copilot .

These HUDs show stats about an opponent, from postflop aggression frequency to how often they fold. Combine those numbers with expected value, bankroll records and honest session review, and you get a clearer view of whether your decisions are improving. That is where poker skill starts to separate from short-term luck.

FAQ

What poker statistics should beginners learn first?

Beginners should learn bankroll risk, starting-hand odds, outs, the rule of two and four, pot odds, expected value and basic tracking stats such as VPIP and PFR.

How often do you get pocket aces?

In Texas Hold'em, you are dealt pocket aces about once every 221 hands.

Why track poker session statistics?

Tracking sessions shows whether your bankroll is growing, which stakes or formats are profitable and whether your results come from good decisions or short-term variance.